In last week’s column, I quoted the Washington catchphrase ‘personnel is policy’ and suggested that the appointments to the Trump 2 administration would give us clues to the direction of travel.
Appointments have since come thick and fast and the evidence they bring is not reassuring.
While some, like Florida Senator Marco Rubio, nominated for Secretary of State, might well have been chosen by a more conventional Republican President, others are way out there.
Trump’s wish to have as his Attorney General Matt Gaetz, who has been investigated for sex trafficking, but not charged, and who is the subject of a serious Congressional ethics investigation, has caused eyes to pop even among loyal Republicans.
The nomination of MAGA mavericks like Gaetz points to turbulent times in American politics, with internal battles to come over Trump’s plans for mass deportations and his wish to control the country’s justice system.
But what does it all mean for America’s role in the world?
Trump and his inner circle intend to run a radical, change-making presidency and to follow his instincts rather than abiding by traditional approaches.
That augurs badly for Europe given Trump’s instinctive aversion to the EU.
It sets up a likely stand-off over Ukraine, not just with Brussels, but with London as well.
Could Europeans plug the gap left by a withdrawal of US aid to Ukraine? Given the existential threat to Europe that a Russian victory would pose, the stakes could not be higher.
Donald Trump has bragged that he would end the Ukraine war overnight, but has not said what his terms would be.
His handling of Ukraine will be a litmus test of Trump’s commitment to European security.
An attempt to impose a settlement on Ukraine that blatantly favours Russia would deal a body blow to Nato and spur Europeans to look for alternative security arrangements.
That would raise serious questions for London and Dublin. Would the Labour government participate in a standalone European defence initiative and how would such a development square with Ireland’s traditional policy of military neutrality?
Trump’s second coming looks set to deepen US support for Israel, which is already fairly unconditional. That could embolden Israel in its desire to have it out with Iran.
Harsher Israeli treatment of Palestinians would increase sympathy for their plight among Europeans and drive a further wedge between Europe and Trump’s America.
Although Trump’s economic team has yet to be unveiled, we must get ready for difficulties on the trade front.
Trump does not have many core beliefs, but a fondness for tariffs is one of those and we can anticipate a show of strength early in his presidency.
He has talked about imposing across-the-board tariffs on imports into America and seems oblivious to the fact that the costs involved would largely be passed on to American consumers.
Countries hit by US tariffs could be expected to retaliate with damaging consequences for global trade. No country could escape the effects of a tariff war, and certainly not a country as export-dependent as Ireland.
Such a situation would, of course, increase the importance of barrier-free trade within the European single market.
European governments are no doubt scratching their heads trying to figure out how to cope with the Trump 2 presidency.
They will know that Trump is fiercely transactional and will be seeking to come up with something they can offer him as a quid pro quo.
They will be aware too that the only European leader to whom he refers approvingly is Viktor Orban, but that will be cold comfort as they mostly take a dim view of the Hungarian strongman.
A crumb of hope is that Trump often responds better than expected during face-to-face encounters.
In their different ways both Enda Kenny and Leo Varadkar coped well with Trump during his first term by being tactful in their engagements with him. We must hope that Ursula von der Leyen can do likewise for the EU.
Is Trump likely to ditch his predecessor’s position on Northern Ireland? On the evidence of his first term, the answer is no.
While the Trump team did not conceal their enthusiasm for Brexit, they had an understanding of its implications for Ireland and stopped short of encouraging London to be intransigent in its negotiations with Brussels.
I put that down to the strong support Trump enjoyed among Irish Americans in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
While he viewed the result of the Brexit referendum as a precursor to his own electoral triumph in 2016, he refrained from weighing in on the British side of the argument.
Throughout his term, he toyed with the idea of appointing an envoy for Northern Ireland and belatedly selected his outgoing Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney, for the position in 2020.
There is much to worry about in the coming years and we can only cling to the hope, best expressed by Belfast poet Derek Mahon, that somehow, with a bit of luck and some skilled diplomacy, ‘everything is going to be alright’.
:: Daniel Mulhall is a former Irish Ambassador to the USA. His latest book is Pilgrim Soul: WB Yeats and the Ireland of his Time (New Island Books, 2023). He can be followed on X: @DanMulhall
:: Noel Doran is away
